FOPA12 PHFO 210245
PWSCP2
HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 pm HST Tue Oct 20 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 5
TROPICAL STORM 7 11 6 5 10 21 44
HURRICANE 93 89 94 95 90 78 51
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 81 55 33 26 31 36 33
HUR CAT 2 11 26 35 31 28 24 12
HUR CAT 3 2 7 21 28 24 15 4
HUR CAT 4 X 1 4 8 6 4 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 90KT 95KT 95KT 90KT 80KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 8(31) 3(34)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 2 7( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 4(23) 1(24) 1(25)
JOHNSTON ISL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14)
25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER WROE