Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP2.CP032009.010.0910210245 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA12 PHFO 210245
PWSCP2

HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009         
500 pm HST Tue Oct 20 2009
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       X       1
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       X       1       5
TROPICAL STORM   7      11       6       5      10      21      44
HURRICANE       93      89      94      95      90      78      51
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       81      55      33      26      31      36      33
HUR CAT 2       11      26      35      31      28      24      12
HUR CAT 3        2       7      21      28      24      15       4
HUR CAT 4        X       1       4       8       6       4       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    80KT    90KT    95KT    95KT    90KT    80KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51001     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  15(23)   8(31)   3(34)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
JOHNSTON ISL   34  2   7( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   4(23)   1(24)   1(25)
JOHNSTON ISL   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
 
25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
25N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
25N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
30N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MIDWAY         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER WROE