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TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 am HST Tue Oct 20 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X X
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X X 1
TROPICAL STORM 40 19 10 5 3 11 23
HURRICANE 60 81 90 95 97 89 76
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 57 61 42 26 19 29 36
HUR CAT 2 3 16 31 31 26 28 22
HUR CAT 3 1 4 15 29 35 25 14
HUR CAT 4 X X 3 8 14 7 3
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 2 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 105KT 100KT 95KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 1 6( 7) 19(26) 9(35) 8(43) 2(45) X(45)
JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24)
20N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
20N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19)
25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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