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TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 pm HST Mon Oct 19 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 162.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION 7 4 2 1 2 2 6
TROPICAL STORM 91 76 48 28 27 32 45
HURRICANE 3 20 50 71 72 66 48
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 18 40 42 40 38 33
HUR CAT 2 X 2 7 19 20 18 11
HUR CAT 3 X X 3 7 10 8 4
HUR CAT 4 X X X 2 2 2 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 80KT 80KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 4(18)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 8(37) 3(40) 1(41)
JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16)
20N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
20N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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