Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP2.CP032009.006.0910200232 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA12 PHFO 200232
PWSCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009         
500 pm HST Mon Oct 19 2009
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       X       X       X       X       1
TROP DEPRESSION 14       8       2       1       1       1       3
TROPICAL STORM  84      80      48      28      18      18      41
HURRICANE        2      12      50      71      81      82      56
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2      11      40      43      39      34      36
HUR CAT 2        X       1       7      19      24      26      15
HUR CAT 3        X       X       3       8      14      17       5
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       2       3       4       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    50KT    65KT    75KT    85KT    90KT    80KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 160W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
JOHNSTON ISL   34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)  15(36)   5(41)   3(44)
JOHNSTON ISL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
JOHNSTON ISL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)
20N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
20N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KODAMA