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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 pm HST Sun Oct 18 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 8.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 1 1 1 X 1
TROP DEPRESSION 38 26 12 6 5 4 4
TROPICAL STORM 60 69 70 56 50 36 44
HURRICANE 1 4 16 38 44 61 51
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 14 30 32 38 34
HUR CAT 2 X X 2 6 9 16 12
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 6 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 75KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 160W 34 10 31(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
10N 160W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
15N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 20(49) 4(53)
JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21)
JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
20N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
20N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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