FOPA12 PHFO 182058
PWSCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 am HST Sun Oct 18 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 4 2 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 67 41 20 10 9 5 4
TROPICAL STORM 30 52 68 60 55 42 42
HURRICANE 1 2 10 29 36 52 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 9 23 28 35 34
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 4 6 12 14
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 5 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 45KT 55KT 60KT 70KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 160W 34 X 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
10N 160W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 10(35)
JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON