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HURRICANE IOKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 am HST Thu Aug 24 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110
KTS...125 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JOHNSTON ISL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 175W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
20N 175W 34 63 26(89) 5(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
20N 175W 50 16 47(63) 9(72) 3(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
20N 175W 64 2 26(28) 10(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41)
25N 175W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 191N 1737W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 191N 1737W 50 93 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 191N 1737W 64 58 11(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
24 196N 1750W 34 69 23(92) 4(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97)
24 196N 1750W 50 22 46(68) 8(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
24 196N 1750W 64 3 34(37) 10(47) 1(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50)
36 197N 1763W 34 12 48(60) 20(80) 7(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90)
36 197N 1763W 50 1 24(25) 27(52) 8(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64)
36 197N 1763W 64 X 8( 8) 19(27) 6(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36)
48 197N 1778W 34 2 14(16) 32(48) 20(68) 11(79) 1(80) 1(81)
48 197N 1778W 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 18(39) 10(49) 1(50) X(50)
48 197N 1778W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 6(24) X(24) 1(25)
72 190N 1793E 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 29(48) 8(56) 2(58)
72 190N 1793E 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) X(25)
72 190N 1793E 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10)
96 189N 1770E 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 16(37) 2(39)
96 189N 1770E 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13)
96 189N 1770E 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
120 198N 1740E 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18)
120 198N 1740E 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
120 198N 1740E 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 105 105 100 90 85 70
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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