000
FOPA11 PHFO 310832
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM LANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 pm HST Thu Jul 30 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 8 29 38
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 7 27 38 37
TROPICAL STORM 71 49 50 58 55 31 24
HURRICANE 30 50 47 34 11 3 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 28 44 38 27 9 2 1
HUR CAT 2 2 5 7 5 2 X X
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 2 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8pm Sun 8pm Mon
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN