FOPA11 PHFO 200253
PWSCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 pm HST Thu Jul 19 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon 2pm Tue
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 50004 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
HILO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
BUOY 50002 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon 2pm Tue
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 167N 1504W 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
12 167N 1504W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
12 167N 1504W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 173N 1538W 34 X 14(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
24 173N 1538W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 173N 1538W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
36 178N 1571W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
36 178N 1571W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 178N 1571W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 181N 1603W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
48 181N 1603W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 181N 1603W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 186N 1662W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
72 186N 1662W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 186N 1662W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
96 190N 1721W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
96 190N 1721W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 190N 1721W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 194N 1779W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
120 194N 1779W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 194N 1779W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BURKE