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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA11 PHFO 192034
PWSCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22       
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007         
1100 am HST Thu Jul 19 2007
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 50004     34  X   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
BUOY 50004     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
BUOY 50002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 165N 1480W 34 14   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 12 165N 1480W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 165N 1480W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 170N 1511W 34  X  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 24 170N 1511W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 170N 1511W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 175N 1541W 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 175N 1541W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 175N 1541W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 179N 1572W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 179N 1572W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 179N 1572W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 187N 1629W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 72 187N 1629W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 187N 1629W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 193N 1687W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 96 193N 1687W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 193N 1687W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 197N 1746W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 197N 1746W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 197N 1746W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BURKE