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HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
500 am HST Mon Jul 24 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 1(18)
BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 166N 1422W 34 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 166N 1422W 50 71 10(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
12 166N 1422W 64 38 10(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
24 171N 1439W 34 19 53(72) 8(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
24 171N 1439W 50 3 35(38) 7(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 171N 1439W 64 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
36 175N 1456W 34 2 22(24) 30(54) 7(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63)
36 175N 1456W 50 X 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
36 175N 1456W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 179N 1474W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 16(38) 8(46) 1(47) X(47)
48 179N 1474W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
48 179N 1474W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 187N 1512W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27)
72 187N 1512W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 187N 1512W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
96 196N 1549W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16)
96 196N 1549W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
96 196N 1549W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 213N 1597W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
120 213N 1597W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 213N 1597W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 65 60 55 50 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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