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  • » NWS
    • » CPHC Home Page
      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA11 PHFO 292044
PWSCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4       
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022009         
1100 am HST Sat Aug 29 2009
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       4       9      11      14      16      17
TROP DEPRESSION 38      42      38      36      36      33      35
TROPICAL STORM  60      52      50      47      45      45      43
HURRICANE        1       2       4       5       5       6       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       4       4       5       5       5
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       1       X       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MIDWAY         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CRAIG