FOPA11 PHFO 081451
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 am HST Fri Aug 08 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 2 5 7 13 20
TROP DEPRESSION 36 27 22 25 29 36 42
TROPICAL STORM 63 68 67 60 55 46 36
HURRICANE 1 3 9 11 10 4 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 8 9 8 4 1
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Fri 2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
10N 160W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
10N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE