National Weather Service

• • RSS Feeds
• Get Storm Info
  • Products
  • Satellite
  • Radar
  • Analyses/Forecasts
  • Hydrology
  • E-mail Updates
  • Help with Advisories
• Awareness
  • Preparedness
  • Weather School
  • Storm Names
  • Saffir-Simpson Scale
  • Glossary
  • Acronyms
  • FAQ
  • Breakpoints
• Hurricane History
  • Annual Summaries
  • Product Archive
  • Climatology
• About the CPHC
  • Our Mission
  • Our Office
  • News Items
  • HI RSS Feeds
• Contact Us
  • Webmaster
• Pacific Region Links
  • Regional HQ
  • WFO Honolulu
  • WFO Guam
  • WSO Pago Pago
  • Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
  • International Tsunami Information Center

NWS on Facebook

NWS on Twitter

Weather-Ready Nation

• NOAA
  • » NWS
    • » CPHC Home Page
      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA11 PHFO 102038
PWSCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008         
1100 am HST Sun Aug 10 2008
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       4       5       7      16      16      16
TROP DEPRESSION 36      41      30      33      39      38      41
TROPICAL STORM  63      52      60      52      41      43      41
HURRICANE        1       2       5       8       4       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       4       6       4       3       2
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    40KT    40KT    35KT    35KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 175W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)
10N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BURKE