FOPA11 PHFO 070225
PWSCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 pm HST Wed Aug 06 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 4 9 7 10 12 8
TROP DEPRESSION 65 40 38 32 33 34 34
TROPICAL STORM 32 53 49 53 51 49 54
HURRICANE 1 2 4 8 6 5 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 3 7 6 5 4
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 X 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) 1(18)
10N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG